Watch out for the danger in the usual pontificating that always starts the year.  It can hurt you!

I have a different take on what’s happening in Portland Real Estate.  I’m not writing to be a cheerleader for buying real estate, to express wishes for a strong recovery or to reassure you that The Jackson Group is still here and selling homes as before – though all are true!

My intent is to take the hype and sensationalism out of the conversation and show you the truth, in your neighborhood, in numbers and graphs.  Forget the headlines in the newspapers or the painful videos on the evening news and take a look at the data for your zip code in the charts and graphs attached.  You’ll see information that is confirmed by actual sales data rather than pundits’ impressions or broad statistics, such as the country and state numbers that are not relevant to you.  What the numbers here show are hyper-local details that more specifically reflect your own individual neighborhood – and the news, whether expected or not, is telling.

For example, in many of our inner Portland area neighborhoods the drop in the number of sales mostly occurred in 2008 and since that time sales have been relatively stable.  That tells us the demand for housing has adjusted and is stable again.   The number of sales, for the most part, stopped tumbling in 2009 and is either flat or slightly higher today.

On the other hand, prices are still falling, though at a lower rate of decline.  The drop in the average home price was the most significant from 2007-2008.  The fall was especially severe in neighborhoods where the overall value is generally higher.  And in those ‘high-end’ areas the decline has continued more steadily.  This includes the areas of Lake Oswego and the West Hills of Portland where the loss in value over 4 years is in the range of 27%-38%.  In areas where the average home price in 2007 was near $500,000 or less, the decline in value over the 4 year period is most often less than 15%.  This confirms a reality that we have observed anecdotally, that once the price goes above $525,000 the probability of a requirement for higher equity or a jumbo mortgage changes the level of demand.  This puts greater downward pressure on the price of those high-end homes.  In areas where the average price is below $500,000 the rate of decline in home values has slowed dramatically.

So what does all this mean to our clients?  Find your zip and compare the numbers here to what you may have thought based on the conversation in the national and local press.  Are you better or worse off than you expected?  If you are surprised by what this tells you, good or bad, give me a call and let’s talk about why.  Is there something about your home or community that sets it apart?  Maybe. Either way I welcome a conversation with you to assess your specific situation, especially if you have reason to move in the near future.

While the challenges are significant, the market shows signs of steadying.  More importantly, house by house the resale possibilities vary based on specific house and neighborhood conditions.  We have successfully sold and moved many clients through this “shifted” market and we have become well schooled in the new rules and peculiarities of home sales today.  If you are ready to move, don’t let the headlines stop you from calling us for a precise assessment of you situation.

We have several new offers in real estate to add to our services for home buyers and home sellers.  We are successfully selling and negotiating “Short Sales” with lenders on behalf of our clients who have more debt than current value.  If you need help with this situation, we have it for you.  As well, we are engaging more and more with real estate investors who want to take advantage of the adjusted market and accumulate rental real estate.  With a 20-25% down payment there is very favorable conventional financing available for qualified investors. There are many properties on the market now for investors to consider that are well priced and cash-flow positive.  This may be a good time for some to begin or add to a real estate portfolio.

To help our investor clients I am offering an investor seminar monthly for the entire year.  The first one will be Thursday, January 20th at 6pm at our office in The Pearl.  Please join us, all are welcome.  If you have questions, or to register for the session, please send us an email at Becky@thejacksonfiles.com or call the office at 503-416-4177.

Good wishes to you for 2011,

Becky Jackson

If you would like a more detailed look at these charts- please email us at becky@thejacksonfile.com