Category Archives: Broker’s Corner

State of the Real Estate Nation 2011

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Watch out for the danger in the usual pontificating that always starts the year.  It can hurt you!

I have a different take on what’s happening in Portland Real Estate.  I’m not writing to be a cheerleader for buying real estate, to express wishes for a strong recovery or to reassure you that The Jackson Group is still here and selling homes as before – though all are true!

My intent is to take the hype and sensationalism out of the conversation and show you the truth, in your neighborhood, in numbers and graphs.  Forget the headlines in the newspapers or the painful videos on the evening news and take a look at the data for your zip code in the charts and graphs attached.  You’ll see information that is confirmed by actual sales data rather than pundits’ impressions or broad statistics, such as the country and state numbers that are not relevant to you.  What the numbers here show are hyper-local details that more specifically reflect your own individual neighborhood – and the news, whether expected or not, is telling.

For example, in many of our inner Portland area neighborhoods the drop in the number of sales mostly occurred in 2008 and since that time sales have been relatively stable.  That tells us the demand for housing has adjusted and is stable again.   The number of sales, for the most part, stopped tumbling in 2009 and is either flat or slightly higher today.

On the other hand, prices are still falling, though at a lower rate of decline.  The drop in the average home price was the most significant from 2007-2008.  The fall was especially severe in neighborhoods where the overall value is generally higher.  And in those ‘high-end’ areas the decline has continued more steadily.  This includes the areas of Lake Oswego and the West Hills of Portland where the loss in value over 4 years is in the range of 27%-38%.  In areas where the average home price in 2007 was near $500,000 or less, the decline in value over the 4 year period is most often less than 15%.  This confirms a reality that we have observed anecdotally, that once the price goes above $525,000 the probability of a requirement for higher equity or a jumbo mortgage changes the level of demand.  This puts greater downward pressure on the price of those high-end homes.  In areas where the average price is below $500,000 the rate of decline in home values has slowed dramatically.

So what does all this mean to our clients?  Find your zip and compare the numbers here to what you may have thought based on the conversation in the national and local press.  Are you better or worse off than you expected?  If you are surprised by what this tells you, good or bad, give me a call and let’s talk about why.  Is there something about your home or community that sets it apart?  Maybe. Either way I welcome a conversation with you to assess your specific situation, especially if you have reason to move in the near future.

While the challenges are significant, the market shows signs of steadying.  More importantly, house by house the resale possibilities vary based on specific house and neighborhood conditions.  We have successfully sold and moved many clients through this “shifted” market and we have become well schooled in the new rules and peculiarities of home sales today.  If you are ready to move, don’t let the headlines stop you from calling us for a precise assessment of you situation.

We have several new offers in real estate to add to our services for home buyers and home sellers.  We are successfully selling and negotiating “Short Sales” with lenders on behalf of our clients who have more debt than current value.  If you need help with this situation, we have it for you.  As well, we are engaging more and more with real estate investors who want to take advantage of the adjusted market and accumulate rental real estate.  With a 20-25% down payment there is very favorable conventional financing available for qualified investors. There are many properties on the market now for investors to consider that are well priced and cash-flow positive.  This may be a good time for some to begin or add to a real estate portfolio.

To help our investor clients I am offering an investor seminar monthly for the entire year.  The first one will be Thursday, January 20th at 6pm at our office in The Pearl.  Please join us, all are welcome.  If you have questions, or to register for the session, please send us an email at Becky@thejacksonfiles.com or call the office at 503-416-4177.

Good wishes to you for 2011,

Becky Jackson

If you would like a more detailed look at these charts- please email us at becky@thejacksonfile.com

Our Technology Tips to Go to School On

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While Portland Real Estate may have nothing to do with going back to school, we all have the back to school mood in our DNA after generations of starting school again in September.  The Jackson Group has some helpful ideas for the student in you that is getting organized for a new season of learning!

Here are a few websites and programs with free tools that you may find useful

Get A Tape From Your Calculator using Moffsoft FreeCalc

This tool is much like the calculator in Windows, minus more advanced features. It creates a tape of your calculations. You can print the tape out or save it . There are other features you’ll like in the calculator as well.  You can see what’s stored in the memory in one quick glance. www.moffsoft.com/freecalc.htm

Fast and Effective Large File Sharing from We Transfer

Music, photos and videos files can be too large to email directly. This tool helps you send large files without affecting the quality of the file.  Select up to 2 gigabytes of files you want to transfer. Specify the recipient’s e-mail address and an optional message. Then click Transfer. The files will be uploaded to the site’s secure server. Your recipient can then download the files anytime. www.wetransfer.com/

Photo Resizing made simple with Image Resizer

Often we need different image sizes. You might have to shrink the photo or make it bigger. With Image Resizer you can resize photos in  groups.  You just have to right-click a photo or group of photos. Then, select Resize Pictures. You will get a screen with some preset image sizes. Click the Advanced button to enter a custom image size. http://imageresizer.codeplex.com/

The Jackson Group has real estate apps & tools available online!

HomeQuest to search for Real Estate using a Map Browser

With this program, you to search the active listings in the Portland Metro area using a map browser.  It allows you to browse the neighborhoods you’re interested in through the eyes of a Google map.  Our clients can save favorites, request showings and see when an active listing has a price reduction or goes pending.

www.theJacksonFiles.com Click SEARCH LISTINGS at the top right-hand column of this page.

Market Analyzer to Stay on top of your Home Value in the Marketplace

This program helps you answer the question that many people are wondering in this market- “what is my home worth today?”  This program uses the same data that we review when determining market value– it pulls the most current active, pending and sold listing in your area and compares them to your homes size, age and condition.  This program can also send you updates as your home value changes.

Click here: http://www.homeinsight.com/Widget/default.asp?2RCQPEBA37BV

To Stay Sharp – Sharpen the Saw

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I’ve just returned from my annual visit to The Aji Network Conference in South San Francisco.    This year I presented a breakout session with Ron Macklin, Director of Service Operations at Siemens Energy.   We did a 90-minute session for conference attendees on the topic of “Constitution: A Concern for Career and Business Enterprise.“  The content for our talk was based on writings and videos by Toby Hecht, founder of The Aji Network, and our session included a lively “clinic” in which the participants constituted new business concepts on the spot.

The Aji Network is a business education company that teaches students how to become knowledge-based and strategic business people so that they develop superior competitive advantage.  Ron and I are both graduates of their Business Professional’s Course and are currently members of the LEIP Program, an acronym for leadership, entrepreneurship, innovation and power!  These are just some of the capacities we seek to learn to build our careers.

Ron Macklin and Becky Jackson at The Aji Network Conference

At this annual meeting of The Aji Network, students from all classes and the online program called “Aji Space” came together to ‘celebrate’ and practice their learning.  Senior students like Ron and myself led sessions on topics relevant to building significant careers in business by learning superior strategic knowledge to enable top 1% performance.  This year’s conference theme was “Strategy and Strategic Planning.”  Today’s highly competitive and rapidly changing global marketplace requires that we as business people stay engaged in continual learning as all professionals do.  Ron and I find that contributing as session leaders is an added dimension to our learning.

The association I have with other ambitious business people at The Aji Network – people who are seeking competitive knowledge – helps me continually improve the services The Jackson Group offers to clients so that we can help them succeed with their property objectives in spite of a challenging marketplace. Without new strategic knowledge we cannot expect to help our clients compete effectively and cope successfully with the enormous challenges in the real estate business – difficult financing,  enormous competition, over supply of housing and limited demand.   With a commitment to learning and improving, we develop and innovate our services so that we maintain a standard of care for our clients that helps us all meet our objectives.  That’s why I commit the time and expense to study.

Focus! Think faster! Remember more!

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Sounds like a New Year’s wish list, doesn’t it?  These were the themes of last night’s lecture at The Newmark Theater on Neuroplasticity:  The Amazing Adaptability of the Brain.

The lecture, presented by Dr. Michael Merzenish of the University of California at San Francisco, was the opening talk as part of the 10th year of the OHSU Brain Awareness Lecture Series and I attended along with 20 or so fellow members of my Pilates studio, Transformations!

What is neuroplasticity and why are a crowd of Pilates enthusiasts learning about it, you ask?

The talk was about how the brain is a learning machine and that, at all ages, we can develop new abilities and improve, and in our own way make meaningful changes in our physical and mental acuities.  Well, this is good news, and all of us ‘movement’ types appreciated the encouragement that our physical efforts will improve our overall well being and personal performance.  So we are recommitted for the lifetime workouts!

But it goes beyond the physical movement program and also requires the commitment to a lifetime schedule for new learning.  This is the catch!  Practice and exercises – and beyond the crossword puzzle of the day, sorry to say.  We must learn constantly, practice new things, especially those subjects and skills that genuinely interest us and stretch our brains into new areas.  Sheesh!  I guess that reading list, language class and business course are all staying part of my plan for 2009 – along with PIlates!

Part of what makes Portland wonderful is a group of Pilates partners finding and appreciating together a memorable lecture from two of our city’s best institutions.  If you’re interested in the rest of the series check here.

Portland is a great place to live!

Becky

Let it snow!

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The press had been talking it up all last week – ‘there’s going to be a blizzard followed by cold temperatures, possibly on Saturday morning, but definitely by late in the day Saturday. Well, they were over zealous, there was not a trace of snow on Saturday morning (I skipped my 7AM Pilates class to avoid driving Burnside) and there was still nothing when Gene and I returned from 2 holiday parties Saturday night.

But, Sunday morning I awoke to swirling snowflakes that continued all day and evening. I loved it! Gene and I stayed cozy with a fire in the fireplace, a stew on the stove and books and, yes, some football, and just a lovely quiet day at home.

Today, I would have stayed home again, working this time, but I had a call to show a condo listing in The Meriwether.  So off I went, braving the icy streets slowly and carefully, but it was not actually a problem. And to be out and about in the snow is really still fun. Since walking is always better than driving in the snow, when I got to South Waterfront I arrived early enough to take a stroll on the waterfront path. Very cold and a bit of bitter wind, but the stillness of the river and the trace of remaining snow gave it a special winter quality. A new group of herons were present at the north end of The Meriwether. It was a special sight.

The showing went well, but that was the end of real estate field work today. I’m glad I had the opportunity to get out, show a home and see the emerging new family of herons.

Let it snow some more!

Becky