Hearing all this I thought it was appropriate to take a look at real data for housing in our neighborhoods.  I am attaching the most recent reports for our most active zip codes so that you can check your own neighborhoods and those around you click here.  We will, as before, have a complete year-over-year comparison at the end of the year.  And please let us know if you would like a more detailed report emailed to you that includes specific information about your zip code.

What I observe from the attached charts is that we are, really, seeing a stabilization of home values in many areas of Portland.  The Jackson Group works all over the metropolitan area with a focus on “inner” area neighborhoods.  I see in the graphs for these inner area zip codes a flattening, and in some cases, upturn in home values.  Our multiple listing data shows us that Portland overall has an average price decline of 4.2% for the 12 months (September to September) but the “for sale” inventory has dropped to the 6-7 month range, which is very close to market equilibrium.  Looking at closer in neighborhoods that inventory level is even lower, producing the “opportunity” for price strength to return.  I believe when we get a 12 month cycle that does not include last winter we will see a price appreciation statistic that reflects a lower rate of decline that the –4.2% we have now.

The Jackson Group has experienced a outstanding year compared to any since the bubble burst.  Today’s real estate market is one that requires knowledge and a culture of care.  We attribute our success to our ability to deliver excellent service at competitive rates (especially when you consider that you get 4 accomplished people on the team compared to the market standard of the lone ranger realtor)!  More importantly, we are focused on leading our clients and our colleagues with better knowledge, accountability, innovative approaches along with our strong team culture in order to help our clients get to the solution they seek.

As you meet and greet your friends and associates through the upcoming holidays, and the subject of real estate comes up (as it always does) we ask you to remember the Jackson Group as your “go-to” resource.  We are here for you!

I have a different take on what’s happening in Portland Real Estate.  I’m not writing to be a cheerleader for buying real estate, to express wishes for a strong recovery or to reassure you that The Jackson Group is still here and selling homes as before – though all are true!

My intent is to take the hype and sensationalism out of the conversation and show you the truth, in your neighborhood, in numbers and graphs.  Forget the headlines in the newspapers or the painful videos on the evening news and take a look at the data for your zip code in the charts and graphs attached.  You’ll see information that is confirmed by actual sales data rather than pundits’ impressions or broad statistics, such as the country and state numbers that are not relevant to you.  What the numbers here show are hyper-local details that more specifically reflect your own individual neighborhood – and the news, whether expected or not, is telling.

For example, in many of our inner Portland area neighborhoods the drop in the number of sales mostly occurred in 2008 and since that time sales have been relatively stable.  That tells us the demand for housing has adjusted and is stable again.   The number of sales, for the most part, stopped tumbling in 2009 and is either flat or slightly higher today.

On the other hand, prices are still falling, though at a lower rate of decline.  The drop in the average home price was the most significant from 2007-2008.  The fall was especially severe in neighborhoods where the overall value is generally higher.  And in those ‘high-end’ areas the decline has continued more steadily.  This includes the areas of Lake Oswego and the West Hills of Portland where the loss in value over 4 years is in the range of 27%-38%.  In areas where the average home price in 2007 was near $500,000 or less, the decline in value over the 4 year period is most often less than 15%.  This confirms a reality that we have observed anecdotally, that once the price goes above $525,000 the probability of a requirement for higher equity or a jumbo mortgage changes the level of demand.  This puts greater downward pressure on the price of those high-end homes.  In areas where the average price is below $500,000 the rate of decline in home values has slowed dramatically.

So what does all this mean to our clients?  Find your zip and compare the numbers here to what you may have thought based on the conversation in the national and local press.  Are you better or worse off than you expected?  If you are surprised by what this tells you, good or bad, give me a call and let’s talk about why.  Is there something about your home or community that sets it apart?  Maybe. Either way I welcome a conversation with you to assess your specific situation, especially if you have reason to move in the near future.

While the challenges are significant, the market shows signs of steadying.  More importantly, house by house the resale possibilities vary based on specific house and neighborhood conditions.  We have successfully sold and moved many clients through this “shifted” market and we have become well schooled in the new rules and peculiarities of home sales today.  If you are ready to move, don’t let the headlines stop you from calling us for a precise assessment of you situation.

We have several new offers in real estate to add to our services for home buyers and home sellers.  We are successfully selling and negotiating “Short Sales” with lenders on behalf of our clients who have more debt than current value.  If you need help with this situation, we have it for you.  As well, we are engaging more and more with real estate investors who want to take advantage of the adjusted market and accumulate rental real estate.  With a 20-25% down payment there is very favorable conventional financing available for qualified investors. There are many properties on the market now for investors to consider that are well priced and cash-flow positive.  This may be a good time for some to begin or add to a real estate portfolio.

To help our investor clients I am offering an investor seminar monthly for the entire year.  The first one will be Thursday, January 20th at 6pm at our office in The Pearl.  Please join us, all are welcome.  If you have questions, or to register for the session, please send us an email at Becky@thejacksonfiles.com or call the office at 503-416-4177.

Good wishes to you for 2011,

Becky Jackson

If you would like a more detailed look at these charts- please email us at becky@thejacksonfile.com

Here are a few websites and programs with free tools that you may find useful

Get A Tape From Your Calculator using Moffsoft FreeCalc

This tool is much like the calculator in Windows, minus more advanced features. It creates a tape of your calculations. You can print the tape out or save it . There are other features you’ll like in the calculator as well.  You can see what’s stored in the memory in one quick glance. www.moffsoft.com/freecalc.htm

Fast and Effective Large File Sharing from We Transfer

Music, photos and videos files can be too large to email directly. This tool helps you send large files without affecting the quality of the file.  Select up to 2 gigabytes of files you want to transfer. Specify the recipient’s e-mail address and an optional message. Then click Transfer. The files will be uploaded to the site’s secure server. Your recipient can then download the files anytime. www.wetransfer.com/

Photo Resizing made simple with Image Resizer

Often we need different image sizes. You might have to shrink the photo or make it bigger. With Image Resizer you can resize photos in  groups.  You just have to right-click a photo or group of photos. Then, select Resize Pictures. You will get a screen with some preset image sizes. Click the Advanced button to enter a custom image size. http://imageresizer.codeplex.com/

The Jackson Group has real estate apps & tools available online!

HomeQuest to search for Real Estate using a Map Browser

With this program, you to search the active listings in the Portland Metro area using a map browser.  It allows you to browse the neighborhoods you’re interested in through the eyes of a Google map.  Our clients can save favorites, request showings and see when an active listing has a price reduction or goes pending.

www.theJacksonFiles.com Click SEARCH LISTINGS at the top right-hand column of this page.

Market Analyzer to Stay on top of your Home Value in the Marketplace

This program helps you answer the question that many people are wondering in this market- “what is my home worth today?”  This program uses the same data that we review when determining market value– it pulls the most current active, pending and sold listing in your area and compares them to your homes size, age and condition.  This program can also send you updates as your home value changes.

Click here: http://www.homeinsight.com/Widget/default.asp?2RCQPEBA37BV

Foreclosure- the option that everyone should try to avoid and only use it if it is your last resort. A foreclosure on your credit history can drastically affect how you can borrow and spend money in the future. It can lower your credit score up to 200-300 points. It is not the choice to take unless someone has lost everything else and has no other options.

Renting- a homeowner might need to change their thinking about their home.   Real Estate is a long term investment. During the fast days of 2003-2007, people were buying and selling so quickly because the market was shooting up so fast. Those days are gone and so real estate appreciation has slowed to a steady level once again. The value of your home WILL go up again but it might not be at the level you purchased for quite some time. If you can consider a rental and stomach covering the additional amount of the mortgage, taxes and insurance- then you might not lose your equity, it would have no affect on your credit and you could move and rent another home that is within your budget. You might have to change your thinking about her mortgage payments- think of it as a payment into an IRA. You might have to tighten your belt a bit but at least you won’t lose your equity.

Short Sale- we are doing a lot of short sales now. Short sales are a good option for home owners that have lost a lot of equity and now owe more in their mortgage than the home is worth. The paperwork and length of time it takes to get a reply from the bank takes a lot of patience so you have to be prepared to make it wait once you submit the paperwork. The bank assigns you a negotiator and then you work with them to lower the loan pay off amounts and release the debt deficiency. Often, there is none or very little affect on one’s credit score. The bank is usually more willing to work with people that are in some type of financial distress- job loss, income reduction, etc. But I have seen sellers will high net worth’s have success with short sales. If you are considering a short sale- you will need a real estate agent with short sale experience that can assess your situation and see if a short sale is a viable option.

Loan Modification- this is also an option but a difficult one to obtain.  Your bank might be willing to work with you to modify your mortgage to decrease your monthly payments if you are in a financially distress situation.  Contact your mortgage holder’s loss mitigation department for more information.

Here is the latest march-2009-market-action report from the RMLS. This is the monthly summary of the real estate sales statistics for our region published by the Regional Multiple Listing Service.

In February both the increase in sales and the decrease in listings relative to last month (January) had a positive influence on the amount of inventory for the Metro area. Inventory now is just over 16 ½ months, down from the record breaking high of 19.2 months in January. While this is both good news and a positive change, we are still in a market that is hugely biased in favor of buyers due to high inventory and very low demand. Until this imbalance changes we can only expect that pricing pressure will continue to be on the downside. This means that for selling listings our strategy must continue to hold to these tenets: very competitive pricing, excellent condition and showing preparation, showing convenience for buyers’ brokers and multi- focused marketing strategies for reaching all possible prospects. We also keep clients well informed by offering regular reports on the number of showings for properties and feedback from the brokers or buyers about those showings, plus the competitive picture specific to each listing.

Another report we provide is the “market analyzer” which shows market demand and inventory absorption in a specific property area and type, among other things. This report is key to understanding why pricing much be considered in terms of demand as well as property comparison. For example, we may be able to determine that a property is priced competitive to all other listings, but still have sales challenges because there simply is such light demand.

For buyers we provide all the same detailed information for the areas and specific properties that are of interest in their home search.  Knowledge is power!

Our intent is to provide legitimate statistical information that i useful to you for taking care of your plans for moving.  We know that a big decision like buying or selling a home cannot be done without the analytical information possible to help with those decisions. There are a lot of good things about our business that are emotional and subjective – we need to have personal and emotional connections to our homes. Added to that ‘emotional connection’ I welcome the ‘proof’ of statistics to help us with strategies and decisions. This is true for both buyers and sellers alike.

As always, if you have any questions or want to discuss something specifically, please give us a call at 503-416-4177.

Becky

“Priced right and lookin’ good “ is the mantra to attract one of the savvy buyers looking to take advantage of a buyer’s market!

Check out the full story market-action-2162009 and find the numbers for your area of Portland.  And call us if you have questions interpreting this real estate market.  503-416-4177

Becky

Okay, so nothing about this real estate market is easy, yet we are busy, working and handling it! Don’t hesitate to call us for help or send us your friends. We can make things happen.

We recently wrote about “how we are doing in real estate,” the question that we hear often from our friends and clients. And, I can still report that, while we could certainly be busier, we are selling homes, we are adjusting to the new realities and we are counseling our clients daily on how they can prepare and adjust in order to reach their goals for moving.

None of this year has been easy! That came home to us clearly this week while working on wrapping up records for the year and preparing for year-end planning and communications with clients. Sarah was packing up all the year’s transaction files when she made the observation, “You know, Becky, none of these were easy.” Well, that is true, and it also doesn’t matter.

Sarah at work on files at the office

Recognizing that our real estate market is new territory with unexpected challenges is something we can notice and learn from, but from my perspective of 25 years of selling real estate, our challenges today are new to us today, but not original or out of the ordinary in prior markets. So, this tells me that we are managing through this because we know what to do, and when the hiccups of the process cause us problems – we solve them.

Like what, you wonder, is causing us problems? First and predominately, surprises in the lending arena. And that should really be no surprise at all – the lending world has been turned on end this year. In some ways it is settling back into the guidelines and practices of a decade ago, and in some ways it is all new territory. So, when the surprises come, new conditions or new rules, for example, The Jackson Group as a team, together with our transaction partners, goes to work to find the solution and to take care of our clients.

The second main area of challenge is the disconnect between buyers and sellers regarding the market. We handle this one, as best we can, with well documented information to help both sides see “reality” for what it is and in context for what they want it to be. Sometimes this works, and sometimes not, but we do our best to bring people together. It is up to them to transact.

If you need help with a move, a transaction or a decision, give us a call. We’re getting more and more resourceful all the time. Here’s our number:  503-416-4177.

Becky

We show you the real statistics about your own neighborhood in charts of homes sale values by zip code for the last four years for many of the areas of Portland that we know matter to you. There are some ups and some downs, but the high volatility we associate with the busting of the housing bubble is not the reality of our Portland area. The information comes from sold data from the RMLS and may not include sales that were done privately.

If you are interested in our report, please contact us with a request and we will send it on. Or, if you have received our report and want more information, or want to learn about a zip code or area that is not included, that’s another good reason to get in touch. .

In recent conversations, many of our friends and clients have asked how we are doing in this credit crisis. While the current market has brought us significant challenges, we are managing through it. We have worked with several buyers recently for whom new loans could have been a challenge, but we have sourced stable lenders with programs that have enabled us to do some loans with 5% and 10% down payments. Credit is available if properly documented and sourced with good lenders. Additionally, we are working with a number of buyers who see this part of the economic cycle as an opportunity to be exploited and they are actively seeking the right property at advantageous terms.

For our sellers we are doing our best to promote properties – especially online, where most buyers are looking – with quality photos and virtual tours and we recommend staging or top notch condition for all showings. We are advising sellers to do everything possible to prepare their homes to ‘shine’ compared to the competition and to price them to be positioned strategically and offer value relative to other homes for sale. We keep our sellers informed about market activity and buyer feedback with weekly reports as we know good communication and information is essential for all of us to make important decisions about how to take care of business today.

We have great properties for sale – and if you see anything on our website that may be of interest to you or a friend of yours, just let us know how we can help.  503-416-4177

Becky