State of the Real Estate Nation 2011

Watch out for the danger in the usual pontificating that always starts the year.  It can hurt you!

I have a different take on what’s happening in Portland Real Estate.  I’m not writing to be a cheerleader for buying real estate, to express wishes for a strong recovery or to reassure you that The Jackson Group is still here and selling homes as before – though all are true!

My intent is to take the hype and sensationalism out of the conversation and show you the truth, in your neighborhood, in numbers and graphs.  Forget the headlines in the newspapers or the painful videos on the evening news and take a look at the data for your zip code in the charts and graphs attached.  You’ll see information that is confirmed by actual sales data rather than pundits’ impressions or broad statistics, such as the country and state numbers that are not relevant to you.  What the numbers here show are hyper-local details that more specifically reflect your own individual neighborhood – and the news, whether expected or not, is telling.

For example, in many of our inner Portland area neighborhoods the drop in the number of sales mostly occurred in 2008 and since that time sales have been relatively stable.  That tells us the demand for housing has adjusted and is stable again.   The number of sales, for the most part, stopped tumbling in 2009 and is either flat or slightly higher today.

On the other hand, prices are still falling, though at a lower rate of decline.  The drop in the average home price was the most significant from 2007-2008.  The fall was especially severe in neighborhoods where the overall value is generally higher.  And in those ‘high-end’ areas the decline has continued more steadily.  This includes the areas of Lake Oswego and the West Hills of Portland where the loss in value over 4 years is in the range of 27%-38%.  In areas where the average home price in 2007 was near $500,000 or less, the decline in value over the 4 year period is most often less than 15%.  This confirms a reality that we have observed anecdotally, that once the price goes above $525,000 the probability of a requirement for higher equity or a jumbo mortgage changes the level of demand.  This puts greater downward pressure on the price of those high-end homes.  In areas where the average price is below $500,000 the rate of decline in home values has slowed dramatically.

So what does all this mean to our clients?  Find your zip and compare the numbers here to what you may have thought based on the conversation in the national and local press.  Are you better or worse off than you expected?  If you are surprised by what this tells you, good or bad, give me a call and let’s talk about why.  Is there something about your home or community that sets it apart?  Maybe. Either way I welcome a conversation with you to assess your specific situation, especially if you have reason to move in the near future.

While the challenges are significant, the market shows signs of steadying.  More importantly, house by house the resale possibilities vary based on specific house and neighborhood conditions.  We have successfully sold and moved many clients through this “shifted” market and we have become well schooled in the new rules and peculiarities of home sales today.  If you are ready to move, don’t let the headlines stop you from calling us for a precise assessment of you situation.

We have several new offers in real estate to add to our services for home buyers and home sellers.  We are successfully selling and negotiating “Short Sales” with lenders on behalf of our clients who have more debt than current value.  If you need help with this situation, we have it for you.  As well, we are engaging more and more with real estate investors who want to take advantage of the adjusted market and accumulate rental real estate.  With a 20-25% down payment there is very favorable conventional financing available for qualified investors. There are many properties on the market now for investors to consider that are well priced and cash-flow positive.  This may be a good time for some to begin or add to a real estate portfolio.

To help our investor clients I am offering an investor seminar monthly for the entire year.  The first one will be Thursday, January 20th at 6pm at our office in The Pearl.  Please join us, all are welcome.  If you have questions, or to register for the session, please send us an email at Becky@thejacksonfiles.com or call the office at 503-416-4177.

Good wishes to you for 2011,

Becky Jackson

If you would like a more detailed look at these charts- please email us at becky@thejacksonfile.com

Our Technology Tips to Go to School On

While Portland Real Estate may have nothing to do with going back to school, we all have the back to school mood in our DNA after generations of starting school again in September.  The Jackson Group has some helpful ideas for the student in you that is getting organized for a new season of learning!

Here are a few websites and programs with free tools that you may find useful

Get A Tape From Your Calculator using Moffsoft FreeCalc

This tool is much like the calculator in Windows, minus more advanced features. It creates a tape of your calculations. You can print the tape out or save it . There are other features you’ll like in the calculator as well.  You can see what’s stored in the memory in one quick glance. www.moffsoft.com/freecalc.htm

Fast and Effective Large File Sharing from We Transfer

Music, photos and videos files can be too large to email directly. This tool helps you send large files without affecting the quality of the file.  Select up to 2 gigabytes of files you want to transfer. Specify the recipient’s e-mail address and an optional message. Then click Transfer. The files will be uploaded to the site’s secure server. Your recipient can then download the files anytime. www.wetransfer.com/

Photo Resizing made simple with Image Resizer

Often we need different image sizes. You might have to shrink the photo or make it bigger. With Image Resizer you can resize photos in  groups.  You just have to right-click a photo or group of photos. Then, select Resize Pictures. You will get a screen with some preset image sizes. Click the Advanced button to enter a custom image size. http://imageresizer.codeplex.com/

The Jackson Group has real estate apps & tools available online!

HomeQuest to search for Real Estate using a Map Browser

With this program, you to search the active listings in the Portland Metro area using a map browser.  It allows you to browse the neighborhoods you’re interested in through the eyes of a Google map.  Our clients can save favorites, request showings and see when an active listing has a price reduction or goes pending.

www.theJacksonFiles.com Click SEARCH LISTINGS at the top right-hand column of this page.

Market Analyzer to Stay on top of your Home Value in the Marketplace

This program helps you answer the question that many people are wondering in this market- “what is my home worth today?”  This program uses the same data that we review when determining market value– it pulls the most current active, pending and sold listing in your area and compares them to your homes size, age and condition.  This program can also send you updates as your home value changes.

Click here: http://www.homeinsight.com/Widget/default.asp?2RCQPEBA37BV

Short Sales Can Be Your Bargain Buy This Fall!

We have a number of short sale listings in at this time, including this one at The John Ross in South Waterfront.

Lately we have been closing multiple short sales both for buyers and sellers.  We work with sellers who must move on from a home in which they are now “under-water” and we help them make a deal with their lender to sell at the market price and still close out their loan.  We also find that our buyers are naturally looking for deals in the Portland real estate market, and we specialize in  making that happen, particularly on Urban Condos.  We have the Portland city focus, yet we also represent clients purchasing short sales in whatever neighborhood they need.  We recently did a short sale transaction for clients buying in the country area of  Gaston!

John Ross Loft

3601 SW River Parkway, #712, Portland OR 97239

Finding a good deal is the point and we help buyers assess if the short sale really is a bargain.  If so, this is a great way to buy with confidence.  If you buy this fall you make a smart move – you will have a negotiating advantage, an interest rate advantage and a supply/demand advantage (there are more properties than buyers).  Although short sales have their challenges and can take extra time, our experienced short sale team will represent you and walk you through the process to a successful closing.

Call one of us on the team to discuss Portland home sales further if it sounds like it might make sense for you.  If you think you may be a short sale seller, call or email us for our short sale toolkit.

503-416-4177 or info@thejacksonfiles.com

Home Sales Times Four!

These days, selling a home is a whole new thing!

For over 25 years the Jackson Group has been marketing homes using the latest marketing skills, tools and resources.  Mostly, we match a buyer with a property and the sale closes!  Now it’s different!  We still do our job, only now we do it four times or more for every property.  First, the buyer, then the home inspector, then the loan officer, then the appraiser and finally, maybe the underwriter again!  Only after all these “sales” might we close and see the happy homeowner move in.

We counsel our clients to prepare their homes for showings and inspections.  This way we increase the likelihood our buyers will hold the “glow” about their new home even when the inspector does his job looking for every possible defect.  And, we provide complete  details on each property to underwriters to make sure there are no last minute surprises about the home or community that will delay closing.

A significant challenge to a smooth sale is the appraisal, either for property issues we did not anticipate or the value assessment being less than the contract amount.  The Jackson Group makes an extra effort for each appraisal in advance of the appraiser’s visit.  We do extensive research on recent sales and the distinguishing features our listings offer or our buyers value.  We prepare comprehensive reports for the appraisers with information about the home, the level of interest from buyers, the neighborhood or community and the market trends.  We present this report in person at the appraiser’s inspection.  Any additional documentation is provided promptly and we  confirm that everything required for an effective evaluation is complete.  The  point is – we treat the appraiser as highly as a buyer and present to close!

We know that buyers and sellers establish the market value when they each agree to a certain price and terms.  We use our Jackson Group Appraisal Report to provide the supporting data that confirms the value for the appraiser.  If an appraisal comes back low, neither the buyer nor the seller is obligated to proceed – but both are disappointed.  When this happens, a new solution is required and new negotiations begin.  We plan to avoid the breakdown, and we work to help the clients find a new arrangement or a new property if we must.

In this “fourth” sale of every transaction we review appraisals on our properties  constantly.   We notice lately that  appraisers indicate a stabilization of values in Portland’s urban area.  This is welcome news for the economy and our real estate investments.

To Stay Sharp – Sharpen the Saw

I’ve just returned from my annual visit to The Aji Network Conference in South San Francisco.    This year I presented a breakout session with Ron Macklin, Director of Service Operations at Siemens Energy.   We did a 90-minute session for conference attendees on the topic of Constitution: A Concern for Career and Business Enterprise.“  The content for our talk was based on writings and videos by Toby Hecht, founder of The Aji Network, and our session included a lively “clinic” in which the participants constituted new business concepts on the spot.

The Aji Network is a business education company that teaches students how to become knowledge-based and strategic business people so that they develop superior competitive advantage.  Ron and I are both graduates of their Business Professional’s Course and are currently members of the LEIP Program, an acronym for leadership, entrepreneurship, innovation and power!  These are just some of the capacities we seek to learn to build our careers.

Ron Macklin and Becky Jackson at The Aji Network Conference

At this annual meeting of The Aji Network, students from all classes and the online program called “Aji Space” came together to ‘celebrate’ and practice their learning.  Senior students like Ron and myself led sessions on topics relevant to building significant careers in business by learning superior strategic knowledge to enable top 1% performance.  This year’s conference theme was “Strategy and Strategic Planning.”  Today’s highly competitive and rapidly changing global marketplace requires that we as business people stay engaged in continual learning as all professionals do.  Ron and I find that contributing as session leaders is an added dimension to our learning.

The association I have with other ambitious business people at The Aji Network – people who are seeking competitive knowledge – helps me continually improve the services The Jackson Group offers to clients so that we can help them succeed with their property objectives in spite of a challenging marketplace. Without new strategic knowledge we cannot expect to help our clients compete effectively and cope successfully with the enormous challenges in the real estate business – difficult financing,  enormous competition, over supply of housing and limited demand.   With a commitment to learning and improving, we develop and innovate our services so that we maintain a standard of care for our clients that helps us all meet our objectives.  That’s why I commit the time and expense to study.

Greentree Circle – in Lake Oswego’s Palisades Neighborhood

1462 Greentree Circle, Lake Oswego $435,000

A super traditional family home in a most ideal of family neighborhoods, this new listing at 1462 Greentree Circle is a perfect place to settle.  An open floor plan with warm hardwood floors, fresh updates and a bonus room over the garage.  The home has four bedroom home including a sexy master suite that has hardwood floors and a cozy fireplace.

The neighborhood is quiet and low on traffic and has the nearby Greentree Park with swing-sets and half-court basketball courts.  another great convenience of the area is that from this home it is easy to walk to either the Palisades Elementary School and Lakeview High School.  So for the just the two years of Waluga Middle School will parents find themselves juggling rides to school!

An attractive home for $435,000.

Celebrating “The Village”

We recently wrote about a transaction that we closed for our buyer that “took a village.”  All of the parties really worked well together and in everyone’s best interest.  By everyone I mean that both the buyer and the sellers took each other’s best interest into consideration when making requests and performing tasks.  The buyers stayed reasonable with their requests and the sellers consistantly took challenges with stride and performed without hesitation.  I knew from seeing the subject property that it was going to be a difficult transaction.  The unknowns were the parties involved.  So I truly feel that it was because the parties worked together that this transaction came together.

As a testiment to the village’s accomplishments, the new owners hosted a get together for everyone involved in the transaction.  Both listing agent and selling agent, the entire buyers’ family and both of the sellers, and the lender and his team were all there to celebrate.  We toasted each other with champagne and once again acknowledged that everyone deserved a pat on the back.

What happier ending could you ask for than a Kodak moment with everyone involved in the transaction.  It made my year and I thank everyone once again for all of their hard work!

Buyers and Sellers Celebrate

Buyers and Sellers CelebrateEveryone Cebrates

Sometimes it takes a village to close a transaction

Our team closed a transaction yesterday that proves that even in a tough market, difficult transactions close– it just “takes a village!” We faced and overcame the many surprises outlined here, and if you’d like to read the whole saga – the narrative is below.

Sequence of surprises for Grant Park Duplex transaction:

  1. Buyer chose a duplex after seeing mostly single family homes
  2. Seller accepts offer as written – no counter offers – signed on the spot
  3. Home inspector finds that significant repairs are needed throughout the entire house. There were issues with a cracked sewer line, defective LP siding, cracking foundation, rotted sill plate and posts in the crawl space and basement, old roof, bad plumbing and electrical throughout the home, and the list went on and on
  4. Seller accepts the buyer’s repair addendum as written requiring over $40,000 in total repair costs
  5. Lender requires clean pest and dry rot report and the work turns up even more dry rot behind the siding, under the porch and in the crawl space. Seller says they’ll fix it.
  6. After 3 oil tank scans, soil under the foundation is found to be contaminated by underground oil tank – over $6500 in DEQ required repairs. Seller says they’ll fix it.
  7. Appraiser requires all peeling paint to be removed and repainted on the inside and outside. Seller says they’ll fix it.
  8. Siding company gets behind on siding installation due to the extent of dry rot repair and weather. Closing has to be extended.
  9. Price has to be changed because the exterior paint will not be done by closing so the buyer has to pay for painting after closing
  10. The transaction actually closes with no last minute mistakes to manage

The Jackson Group relationship began with these clients about 2 years ago when they started searching for homes with classic charm and character in NE and SE Portland. We focused our search on homes that were in great neighborhoods like Clinton, Abernathy, Hawthorne, Ladd’s Addition, Grant Park, Alameda, etc. and most of what we were finding was older homes that needed some work. We even had an escrow on an REO property that ended up being a little uneven on its foundation. When that one failed we took a break for a while.

We started our search months later and prices had come down. We expanded our search to duplexes with the possibility of renting out the second unit until the buyers could someday expand into the entire home. One hot summer Sunday evening, we looked at 3 properties and the last was a duplex in Grant Park right behind the high school. From the outside with the peeling paint, vines growing up the chimney, old roof, cracked foundation and original windows, it was an obvious fixer. But on the inside the original charm was still there. The rooms were large and stately but there was still a lot of work to be done. We were surprised when the clients wanted to write an offer.

The sellers had owned the home for many years and had never lived there but had a steady stream of loyal tenants in both units. The home had gone through quite a history since it was built in the 1910s- it was even converted into a boarding house in the 1950s. It had only been on the market for a few weeks and our offer was below the asking price, so we made the extra effort to present the offer to the listing agent and the sellers in person.

Our client was a very strong buyer with a solid loan approval through one of our favorite mortgage brokers, Mike Hall of Pacific Residential Mortgage. The presentation of the offer went well and on the way back to the office the call came that our offer had been accepted as written. I was so surprised that I almost hit the car in front of me! I called the client right away to deliver the good news. But we all knew that we had quite a ways to go to get through this transaction because of the extent of the needed repairs.

After the 5 hour inspection, Don Hatch of Assurance Home Inspections discovered that almost every element of this home needed some repairs. And, we’re not talking about “the kitchen sink leaks when the hot water is on”. No, we’re talkin’, this home needed a new roof, new siding, new foundation supports, new posts and beams in the basement, code violations in staircases, peeling paint, electrical and plumbing, and more. We could not even find the underground oil tank that we knew existed somewhere. So our work was cut out for us.

Over the next week, I went out to that house at least once a day to meet contractors to get proposals on the repairs. And after about 2 weeks we had most of our numbers in order. We were ready to draft the repair addendum. I presented the repair addendum in person again due to the extent of the request (over $40,000 in repairs). We continued to re-iterate our client’s wish to be as reasonable as possible and focus on repairs that the lender would require as a condition of closing such as structural and safety hazards. The buyer was even willing to raise the purchase price to help with the cost of some of the repairs.

The seller accepted our repair addendum as requested. We then had to mutually agree to choose the contractors for each job. Sorting through those numbers took another 2 weeks and 5 additional addendums but we finally set the dates and chose the contractors to do the work. Now there was only the work to be completed and to close.

WRONG! Another surprise hit us when we finally found the oil tank using a geo-tech specialist. The underground oil tank was leaking underneath the foundation of the home. DEQ requires that the soil not be contaminated by leaking oil and, if found to be unsafe, the tank and soil around the tank must be removed. The sellers took charge and found the right contractor for the job and cleaned the site – phew!

The siding company got behind schedule with the installation of the new hardy plank because of poor weather and more dry rot found behind the siding. The lender was requiring re-inspections by the appraiser, the pest and dry rot inspector and our home inspector so we scheduled them all for the same day. But because of the extent of the repairs, there were still some items that needed to be addressed during our final week of escrow. The seller went to task on the remaining list and finished 4 days later. I gave him my pink camera to document the additional repairs to send to the inspectors. Finally, all that was left to do was to get the okay on the paint from the appraiser and push a little paper.

The transaction officially recorded yesterday. Our clients were out to the house last night measuring rooms and creating their “to do” lists for moving in and making the home “theirs”.

I give the most credit in this transaction to the sellers. They were there at every step of the way to make sure that we had everything covered. I even had the seller’s phone number plugged into my phone because we were in such good communication. Our team has never done more paperwork or had a thicker file. This closed real estate transaction shows that even in a really difficult market, tough deals can come together if everyone works together to make it happen. The buyer never stopped wanting to buy, and the sellers never stopped wanting to sell, so everyone did their part and made it work.

Thanks to everyone that helped make this long shot become a success for all!

Atwater Place To Auction 40 Homes!

The owners of Atwater Place in South Waterfront announced recently that 40 homes in the building will be sold at auction on September 20th. Many of you have called or emailed with comments and questions, so I thought I would speak up about this to help others understand what is happening, what it means for the marketplace and what you need to know if you want to participate.

Many people are talking about this auction as if it were a sorry situation, but that is absolutely not the case. The best thing for the marketplace is to have these condo buildings with many unsold homes have an auction to sell condos at prices that buyers are willing and eager to pay, rather than continue to sit with unsold homes that are priced as if we are going to go back to $400/SF! Well, that ain’t happening any time soon, and when the owners of condos understand that, we will have a healthy and active market again. The best thing for the current owners of homes in these buildings is that the rest of the homes get sold and the buildings get fully occupied by new homeowners who move in, shop in the nearby retail, take walks in the neighborhood and help make the building and neighborhood a vibrant place to live.

Atwater Place Condominiums at South Waterfront

Atwater Place Condominiums at South Waterfront

The auction for Atwater Place is the first to happen in Portland’s downtown area so we will be learning on this one how the marketplace will respond. I believe it is a terrific opportunity for condo buyers to buy premium homes in a stellar building and a top quality neighborhood. These are all good features of A-grade property, the kind that every homeowner seeks, and the only reason these homes are not already sold is that they are priced too high on the builders’ price lists. The auction should give buyers the chance to set prices they are willing to pay, which may not be as low as the minimum bid, but which will be appropriate for the current economy and today’s market environment.

Here’s what you need to know if you are interested in attending the auction – and The Jackson Group is well prepared and available to assist you with any specific needs, from plain old information to full blown representation for a purchase. The seller will pay the fee for our services to represent you to buy at the auction, though there are some rules attached to that. Call us if you have questions, and plan to have one of us accompany you to visit the Auction Showroom to register you as our client.

Facts to know:

Auction Date and Location: 4:00PM Sunday, September 20, 2009

Marriott Portland Downtown

1401 SW Naito Parkway

Portland, OR 97201

40 Homes are offered for sale at the auction, with pre-set minimum bids which, if offered, will be accepted. The seller reserves the right to change the units offered at the auction and may do so based on buyer interest. The homes range in size from a 931SF 1-bedroom to a 2355SF premium home with minimum bid prices from $169,900 to $899,000. We have the complete list of homes plus floor plans, so call us if you want more details.

All potential buyers must be prequalified with one of the pre-approved lenders (Bank of America or MetLIfe Home Loans) prior to the auction – even if you intend to use your own lender. Cash buyers must provide proof of funds prior to the auction.

All buyers who wish to participate in the auction must be registered by submitting a completed written form by 7pm on September, 18th. On auction day, bidders must have a cash equivalent (cashier’s check payable to yourself) of $2500 for each home they may purchase. Upon successful purchase, buyers must endorse their cashier’s check to Ticor Title Company and agree as part of their purchase agreement to increase their deposit to 3% of the sales price, which must be paid with a personal check payable to Ticor Title that evening.

Closing of all successful purchases shall happen by October 19th, unless an extension is agreed to in writing with the seller.

There are at least a dozen other special conditions, so if you need more information, please call us and we can go through all the fine print with you. Again, we believe this is a positive event for the marketplace and we encourage people who may be interested in buying a downtown condo to get involved if only to learn and then determine if there is a positive possibility for them in this auction.

Have a great holiday weekend!

Becky

Portland Farmers’ Market is Open!

A favorite stop of mine on Saturday mornings after my Pilates and Aerobics classes is the Farmers’ Market at the Portland State University campus.  The Portland area has several farmers’ markets, on different days and in different locations, but this one fits my schedule and location best.  Another good one for me location-wise is the Thursday afternoon version at the Patagonia Building in The Pearl.  Either one of these or the others on the schedule are great open markets of seasonal fresh produce and farm products, dairy and meat offers, flowers and fun stuff.  It is fresh, local good food and a totally fun experience.  My niece Ashley and I meet up there on Saturdays about 9:20.  Ashley arrives from South Waterfront by streetcar, so she is totally sustainable, and we drink coffee and share our interest in food, cooking, gardening and family.  We have our favorite spots, the ‘Tart’ Lady from Hood River, the mushroom stand, the grilled pepper man, and any one of the fresh veggie and fresh egg providers.

The crowd is increasing now that the sun has come out!  Hope to see you there sometime!

Becky